The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model version 1.0 – Part 1: Description and evaluation

The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulations and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. This paper describes the model physics and software, analyses the control climatology, and evaluates the ability of the model to simulate the modern climate. <br><br> Mk3L incorporates a spectral atmospheric general circulation model, a <i>z</i>-coordinate ocean general circulation model, a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface scheme with static vegetation. The source code is highly portable, and has no dependence upon proprietary software. The model distribution is freely available to the research community. A 1000-yr climate simulation can be completed in around one-and-a-half months on a typical desktop computer, with greater throughput being possible on high-performance computing facilities. <br><br> Mk3L produces realistic simulations of the larger-scale features of the modern climate, although with some biases on the regional scale. The model also produces reasonable representations of the leading modes of internal climate variability in both the tropics and extratropics. The control state of the model exhibits a high degree of stability, with only a weak cooling trend on millennial timescales. Ongoing development work aims to improve the model climatology and transform Mk3L into a comprehensive earth system model

Delivering precision antimicrobial therapy through closed-loop control systems

Sub-optimal exposure to antimicrobial therapy is associated with poor patient outcomes and the development of antimicrobial resistance. Mechanisms for optimizing the concentration of a drug within the individual patient are under development. However, several barriers remain in realizing true individualization of therapy. These include problems with plasma drug sampling, availability of appropriate assays, and current mechanisms for dose adjustment. Biosensor technology offers a means of providing real-time monitoring of antimicrobials in a minimally invasive fashion. We report the potential for using microneedle biosensor technology as part of closed-loop control systems for the optimization of antimicrobial therapy in individual patients

Can energy fluxes be used to interpret glacial/interglacial precipitation changes in the Tropics?

Recent theoretical advances in the relationship between heat transport and the position of the inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) present an elegant framework through which to interpret past changes in tropical precipitation patterns. Using a very large ensemble of climate model simulations we investigate whether it is possible to use this framework to interpret changes in the position of the ITCZ in response to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions. We find that the centroid of tropical precipitation, which represents the evolution of precipitation in the whole tropics, is best correlated with heat transport changes. We find that the response of the annual mean ITCZ to glacial and interglacial boundary conditions is quite different to the response of the climatological annual cycle of the ITCZ to the seasonal cycle of insolation. We show that the reason for this is that while the Hadley Circulation plays a dominant role in transporting heat over the seasonal cycle, in the annual mean response to forcing, the Hadley Circulation is not dominant. When we look regionally, rather than at the zonal mean, we find that local precipitation is poorly related to either the zonal mean ITCZ or to meridional heat transport. We demonstrate that precipitation is spatially highly variable even when the zonal mean ITCZ is in the same location. This suggests only limited use for heat transport in explaining local precipitation records, thus there is limited scope for using heat transport changes to explain individual paleo-precipitation records

Examining the effect of state anxiety on compensatory and strategic adjustments in the planning of goal-directed aiming

The anxiety-perceptual-motor performance relationship may be enriched by investigations involving discrete manual responses due to the definitive demarcation of planning and control processes, which comprise the early and late portions of movement, respectively. To further examine the explanatory power of self-focus and distraction theories, we explored the potential of anxiety causing changes to movement planning that accommodate for anticipated negative effects in online control. As a result, we posed two hypotheses where anxiety causes performers to initially undershoot the target and enable more time to use visual feedback (“play-it-safe”), or fire a ballistic reach to cover a greater distance without later undertaking online control (“go-for-it”). Participants were tasked with an upper-limb movement to a single target under counter-balanced instructions to execute fast and accurate responses (low/normal anxiety) with non-contingent negative performance feedback (high anxiety). The results indicated that the previously identified negative impact of anxiety in online control was replicated. While anxiety caused a longer displacement to reach peak velocity and greater tendency to overshoot the target, there appeared to be no shift in the attempts to utilise online visual feedback. Thus, the tendency to initially overshoot may manifest from an inefficient auxiliary procedure that manages to uphold overall movement time and response accuracy

The Herschel Virgo Cluster Survey: IV. Resolved dust analysis of spiral galaxies

We present a resolved dust analysis of three of the largest angular size spiral galaxies, NGC 4501 and NGC 4567/8, in the Herschel Virgo Cluster Survey (HeViCS) Science Demonstration field. Herschel has unprecedented spatial resolution at far-infrared wavelengths and with the PACS and SPIRE instruments samples both sides of the peak in the far infrared spectral energy distribution (SED).We present maps of dust temperature, dust mass, and gas-to-dust ratio, produced by fitting modified black bodies to the SED for each pixel. We find that the distribution of dust temperature in both systems is in the range ~19 - 22 K and peaks away from the centres of the galaxies. The distribution of dust mass in both systems is symmetrical and exhibits a single peak coincident with the galaxy centres. This Letter provides a first insight into the future analysis possible with a large sample of resolved galaxies to be observed by Herschel.Comment: Letter accepted for publication in A&A (Herschel special issue

The added value of ordinal analysis in clinical trials: an example in traumatic brain injury

INTRODUCTION: In clinical trials, ordinal outcome measures are often dichotomized into two categories. In traumatic brain injury (TBI) the 5-point Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) is collapsed into unfavourable versus favourable outcome. Simulation studies have shown that exploiting the ordinal nature of the GOS increases chances of detecting treatment effects. The objective of this study is to quantify the benefits of ordinal analysis in the real-life situation of a large TBI trial. METHODS: We used data from the CRASH trial that investigated the efficacy of corticosteroids in TBI patients (n = 9,554). We applied two techniques for ordinal analysis: proportional odds analysis and the sliding dichotomy approach, where the GOS is dichotomized at different cut-offs according to baseline prognostic risk. These approaches were compared to dichotomous analysis. The information density in each analysis was indicated by a Wald statistic. All analyses were adjusted for baseline characteristics. RESULTS: Dichotomous analysis of the six-month GOS showed a non-significant treatment effect (OR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.98 to 1.21, P = 0.096). Ordinal analysis with proportional odds regression or sliding dichotomy showed highly statistically significant treatment effects (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.25, P = 0.0007 and 1.19, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.30, P = 0.0002), with 2.05-fold and 2.56-fold higher information density compared to the dichotomous approach respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of the CRASH trial data confirmed that ordinal analysis of outcome substantially increases statistical power. We expect these results to hold for other fields of critical care medicine that use ordinal outcome measures and recommend that future trials adopt ordinal analyses. This will permit detection of smaller treatment effects

1969: Abilene Christian College Bible Lectures - Full Text

GOD’S ETERNAL PURPOSE Being the Abilene Christian College Annual Bible Lectures 1969 Published by ABILENE CHRISTIAN COLLEGE BOOK STORE ACC Station Abilene, Texas 7960